The Bayesian Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Assessment in the North-East Indian Peninsula
IR@C-MMACS: CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
The Bayesian Probabilistic
Earthquake Hazard Assessment
in the North-East Indian
Peninsula
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| Creator |
Parvez, Imtiyaz A
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| Subject |
Computational Seismology
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| Description |
The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used
to estimate the seismic hazard in twelve seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian
peninsula. This tool has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information of
seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many
seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimates of
seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude.
These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical estimates of
seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake
occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T=5 years, the
probability of occurrences of magnitude (Mw=5.0-5.5) is more than 0.9 for all zones. For
Mw=6.0, four zones exhibit very high probabilities namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5
(Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high
probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely Z4, Z12, and rest of the
zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.
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| Publisher |
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation
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| Date |
2003-01
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| Type |
Monograph
NonPeerReviewed |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/200/1/rrcm0301new.pdf
Parvez, Imtiyaz A (2003) The Bayesian Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Assessment in the North-East Indian Peninsula. Technical Report. CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, C-MMACS,Bangalore 560037,India. (Unpublished) |
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| Relation |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/200/
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