Advance Forecasting of Onset, Duration and Hourly Fog Intensity over Delhi
IR@C-MMACS: CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Advance Forecasting of Onset, Duration and Hourly
Fog Intensity over Delhi
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| Creator |
Goswami, P
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| Subject |
Climate Modelling
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| Description |
Fog affects many sections of the society. However effective fog forecasting that meets user needs in terms of lead,
accuracy and resolution of onset, duration and intensity (visibility) still remains difficult. Two major challenges in
modelling and forecasting fog are accurate simulation of the meteorological fields and a proper representation of the
dynamics of fog. However, although dynamical (meso-scale) models still suffer from errors in the forecast of precise
fields, the genesis of fog is primarily controlled by (quasi-continuous) thresholds in the meteorological fields, which
may be more predictable. We present here a fog forecasting system based on a combination of dynamical (mesoscale)
model (MM5 Version 3) and a prognostic fog model. The meteorological forecasts from the meso-scale model
are used in the prognostic model for fog to predict onset, duration and visibility 24 hours in advance with hourly
resolution. The validation is carried out against hourly visibility at Indira Gandhi International Airport, Delhi, compiled
by the Indian Air Force (IAF) from observations by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), for the period
December 2005, January 2006 and December 2006. The evaluation has been carried out in terms of parameters like
average errors in onset, duration and visibility, number of false and over warnings as well as success in predicting
intense fog events. The forecasts captured 15 out of 16 intense fog events (visibility ≤ 500 meters with duration ≥ 2
hours) during the three months. A sensitivity analysis with up to 50% uncertainties in the free and semi-empirical
parameters shows the performance to be robust.
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| Publisher |
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation
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| Date |
2007-11
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| Type |
Monograph
NonPeerReviewed |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/188/1/rrcm0714.pdf
Goswami, P (2007) Advance Forecasting of Onset, Duration and Hourly Fog Intensity over Delhi. Technical Report. CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, C-MMACS,Bangalore 560037,India. (Unpublished) |
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| Relation |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/188/
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