Growth Patterns of Road Vehicle Populations in India
IR@C-MMACS: CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Growth Patterns of Road Vehicle Populations in India
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| Creator |
T R, Krishna Mohan
K S, Yajnik |
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| Subject |
Measurement and Data Generation/Collection
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| Description |
In an earlier work (Somasekhara et al., 1992), a general methodology had been given to describe the growth of the transport sector in India on the time scale of decades in terms of appropriate mathematical models. In that work, the then available data, up to 1989, for rail, road and air sectors in independent India had been analyzed to determine the long-term trends and to calibrate those models. An important results that had emerged was that exponential growth is prevalent in all the sectors with no saturation in sight. Those models were then used to estimate the growth in the next two decades. In particular, projections for the possible situations at the turn of the centure had been analyzed and policy implications discussed.
We revisit that work in this exercise in the light of the data available now for nearly a decade after 1989, i.e. with data up to 1998. As is well known, policies have changed drastically in the last decade and this is reflected in the data sets. We are restricting ourselves to the roads sector in this work and, in particular, to the growth among the prominent categories of vehicles. The quality of life is affected in very many ways, including pollution, noise, road safety, commuting time etc., by the available distribution of vehicles. Our earlier study had indicated that the 2-2heelers were growing at an alarming rate; they comprised 64% of all vehicles in 1989 with projections of 90% by the year 2000. Our recent results indicate that, surprisingly, the growth rates of all vehicles have started to reduce. All categories of vehicles are showing tendency to stabilize at the present proportions in which 2-wheelers form 70%s of all vehicles and buses just 1.3%; the proportion of buses have monotonously decreased since 1951. Policy decisions to bring up the proportion of buses is urgently required to establish a healthy mix of vehicles which is environmentally sound and giving better road conditions.
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| Publisher |
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation
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| Date |
2002-07-19
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| Type |
Monograph
NonPeerReviewed |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/207/1/rrcm0205.pdf
T R, Krishna Mohan and K S, Yajnik (2002) Growth Patterns of Road Vehicle Populations in India. Technical Report. CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation , C-MMACS,Bangalore 560037,India. (Unpublished) |
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| Relation |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/207/
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