Improved Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Intensity using Multi-grid Ensemble with a Global Circulation Model
IR@C-MMACS: CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Improved Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Intensity using Multi-grid Ensemble
with a Global Circulation Model
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| Creator |
Goswami, P
Gouda, K C |
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| Subject |
Climate Modelling
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| Description |
Two parameters critical for an effective tropical cyclone forecast are track (location of landfall) and intensity.
Given that the damage potential of a tropical cyclone is proportional to a power (generally greater than one) of
intensity, accuracy in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity is a critical requirement for managing this natural
disaster. However, the current skill in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity is rather limited with very little
improvement over the years. We present a methodology, based on a dynamical considerations, that
overcomes many of the weaknesses in the current technique of forecasting cyclone intensity. We use a
variable resolution Global Circulation Model (VR-GCM) that combines the advantages of a limited area model
and a global model. In addition, the formulation of the variable resolution GCM is used to generate an
ensemble called a multi-grid ensemble (MuGE). The variable-resolution GCM along with the multi-grid
ensemble and a methodology of debiasing the forecasts provides significant skill in forecasting tropical cyclone
intensity 2-7 days (variable depending on events) in advance. The multi-grid ensemble significantly enhances
the reliability of the forecasts and allows creation of multiple scenarios (ensemble) which can be used for
assessment of threat and least-regret policy planning. We consider thirty cases including storms and cyclones
representing different locations, seasons, years (1990-2005) and strength over the Bay of Bengal to evaluate
our methodology; the method compares favorably with current operational skill the world over.
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| Publisher |
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation
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| Date |
2007-10
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| Type |
Monograph
NonPeerReviewed |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/187/1/rrcm0713.pdf
Goswami, P and Gouda, K C (2007) Improved Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Intensity using Multi-grid Ensemble with a Global Circulation Model. Technical Report. CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, C-MMACS,Bangalore 560037,India. (Unpublished) |
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| Relation |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/187/
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